Monday, April 30, 2007

Took it Easy Today

Well I didn't play too many games today, but of the few I did, I played well. Sometimes it is good for your poker development to just 1 table and take small breaks in between each game. This is how I imagine I will play if I make it to the high stakes games.

Even with this bit of a slowdown I am sure I can make silverstar. I am within 8 or so games of it.

---
BR:$750.08
VPPs to Silverstar:53

Sunday, April 29, 2007

18 Game Winning Streak

Your fearless hero dominated the tables yesterday. I reached the BR needed for 33s without losing a single $22 tourney. I played 14 22s with a 100% winrate. I had won my last 4 $11s before moving up, making that an 18 game winning streak. Then I played a few 33s and ended my session. I went 1 - 3 playing the 33s. Can't win them all.


I am still planing on moving up to the 55s on my normal schedule but I probably wont be hitting the 110s for awhile.

---
BR:$627.08
VPPs to Silverstar:101

Friday, April 27, 2007

Today was a Good Day

Well I finally ran like god again. And made it to the amount needed to move up to $22s. Since starting the $22s I haven't lost one yet. My mind was really sharp during the whole time, and I was making really good plays, staying out of trouble with marginal hands, and just getting paid off.

If I have one day like this a week, this challenge will be dominated.

---
BR:$531.08
VPPs to Silverstar:173

Thursday, April 26, 2007

Side Goal Time!

Well, I have decided that I should at least get to silverstar so I get start getting some decent frequent player points on pokerstars. I have earned 1130 VPP's this month already, and must earn 370 more by April 30th to by promoted to silverstar. I get 3 VPP's per $11 HU tourney. Meaning I have to play 124 tourneys by the end of the month. I can do this, but it means I might have to choose some times to 2-table. I will probably 2-table at primetime, which would be around 9pm to 12am central time. The fishier players are out so variance should be increased too much.

Also I will be posting my VPP's needed at the end of each post until the goal is met or the end of the month.

---
BR:$317.58
VPPs to Silverstar:370

Wednesday, April 25, 2007

It's been a trying couple of days

Well I have had the first struggle in my climb up the HU poker mountain. That's right, a downswing. Not a big deal. Downswings are standard, but I think it has told me something. Maybe I am not so great at 2tabling HU. Normally downswings are fairly rare for good HU sng players. The variance in HU sngs for a 65% winner is very low. If you play 30 HU sngs a day as a 65% winner you have something like a 98% chance at a winning session. (rough estimate, I have done the calculation but don't have it in front of me).

But a 55% winner (aka me while 2tabling and probably making a few tilt-based plays) will not have such a great chance. The chance for a winning session under those circumstances are closer to around 68% (another estimation). So as you can see, 32% is a likely event.

For more information on winrates affecting variance, check out this thread on the 2+2 HU forums.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=9878395&an=0&page=1#Post9878395

As a result of this knowledge, I think it is best for my small bankroll that I 1 table for most of this challenge. Technically I make more money per hour 2 tabling, but because it does decrease my winrate, the variance will be a lot crazier. Basically I have concluded that a 20 buyin bankroll is not sufficient for 2tabling, but plenty sufficient for 1tabling.

So I will try 1tabling for a few days and see how it goes. Once I get up to a level I am comfortable grinding, I will likely stay for awhile and let my bankroll grow, which should allow me to 2table again and earn more $$$/hour.

Downswings hurt, but most of the time you learn something, so consider yourself paying for the knowledge and experience.

---
BR:$311.08

Sunday, April 22, 2007

Tilted

For some reason I feel tilted. It is probably due to being tired. I can't think properly so I wont play anymore tonight. Made about $10 though. It is important to recognize when you shouldn't be playing and stop before you give up a bunch of EV.

---
BR:$389.57

Bankroll Rules

Ok, this is a very important part of success in poker. Due to the lower variance of headsup sngs, The buyins needed to have a very low risk of ruin is a lot lower than 9man sngs or cash games.

So here are the rules I will be rigidly following while I am playing these games.

I will move up to a limit once I have 20 buyins for that limit. If I drop down to where I have 10 buyins or less at a limit, I will move down. Once I am playing 55s it will take 30 buyins for the next level to move up. I will move down at 20 buyins.

Basically If I lose 10 buyins from the starting point of a level I move down. Here is the table I will be using.

While playing $11s

Once BR hits $460
move up to $22s.

If BR hits $115
move down to $6s.

While playing $22s

Once BR hits $690
move up to $33s.

If BR hits $230
move down to $11s.

While playing $33s

Once BR hits $1150
move up to $55s.

If BR hits $345
move down to $22s.

While playing $55s

Once BR hits $3450
move up to $110s

If BR hits $575
move down to $33s.

While playing $110s

Once BR hits $6900
consider playing $220s.

If BR hits $2300
move down to $55s.


As for after that, I will decide.

Comments about this strategy are welcome.

As for the play, I didn't get many games in, but I almost broke even. I spent too much time watching dutch music videos on youtube.

---
BR:$378.57

Friday, April 20, 2007

A Streak of Luck

I hit it pretty big today. Only played for a total of 3.3 hours, but I was rocking my opponents. 69% winrate over 39 games for a total of +$145.50. I will probably be moving to the $22s soon. Not much else to say other than I ran really good.

---
BR:$388.82

Quick Update

Well, tonight is starting off really good. So far I am up ~7 buyins. Playing at night works really well. I am crushing the 11s. It also helps to run really good, outdraw people, and have my hands hold up.

Some thoughts I have on heads up sngs;

I think it is important that I get as many tourneys in as possible while I am playing and running well. When I am running bad, it is simply harder for me to play as well. I am looking into why this is, and I hope to eventually not have such a problem with it, but right now, when it happens, I usually stop playing for that session. I believe this is why I have had the most success at HU sngs compared to other forms of poker. The variance is simply lower.

The problem with HU poker is that you are playing and thinking about nearly every hand. Even if you fold a lot preflop, you get dealt the next hand instantly. I think it is reasonable to argue that you do as much thinking playing 2 tables of HU as someone playing 8 tables of 9man sngs or full ring cash games. Since the HU games finish much faster than 9man sngs, the hourly rate for HU sngs is pretty good.

---
BR:$243.32

Thursday, April 19, 2007

The First Day

Well my first day was pretty productive. I started out well and then the profits started to taper off. Playing the 11s is a lot different than playing the 55s. I find the opponents start getting really frustrated if they lose half of their stack. One guy lost an allin and sat out because he was down to 500 chips. These guys bleed EV and I am happy to pick up the slack.

Towards the end of the day I was probably playing a little worse, making bad reads, and paying off a few times when I shouldn't have. I really need to work on keeping my mind sharp near the end of sessions. The more games I can get in, the better.

That said I played 34 games yesterday. I won 19, putting me at 55.88% winrate for the day. 52.50% is breakeven because of the rake. I know I can win at a larger rate, but that number doesn't mean anything about my play since it isn't over enough games to be meaningful. I do know that I did better and was playing better at the start of my session.

I played for 3 hours making $7.98 an hour. I was 2tabling during most of the 3 hours. The more I get used to playing a lot, the longer I will be able to play. I am going to try to keep up the same pace for the next few weeks, and then hopefully increase the amount I am playing.

---
BR:$165.32

Wednesday, April 18, 2007

Zomg First Post

This blog will be covering my play of heads up sitngos as I try to earn $10,000 playing them. I am hoping to be able to do this in 3 months. I shall post about the trials and tribulations of getting there as I play. I will also post my history with HU sngs, and with poker in general.

I currently have no "real" job. I will inevitably have to withdraw bits of bankroll to pay for expenses.

As of right now my return on investment playing HU sngs has been 9% over 755 games. I have tilted quite a bit, but I still managed to profit. Due to burnout I let my bankroll get quite low, as I was simply withdrawing, and playing very little. Well now I have to play, or get a job. That is a pretty easy choice for me.

I am starting out again at the $11 level of HU sngs. I have $138.32 in my pokerstars account. My plan is to play 2 tables at a time for at least 20 hours a week. Hopefully I can light a fire under my ass and play 40 hours a week, but we shall see. I will set my daily sng goal at 30 a day. I wont be playing everyday, but I will try to play at least 5 days a week. I will state my BR at the bottom of every post.

Wish me luck!

---
BR:$138.32