Well I have had the first struggle in my climb up the HU poker mountain. That's right, a downswing. Not a big deal. Downswings are standard, but I think it has told me something. Maybe I am not so great at 2tabling HU. Normally downswings are fairly rare for good HU sng players. The variance in HU sngs for a 65% winner is very low. If you play 30 HU sngs a day as a 65% winner you have something like a 98% chance at a winning session. (rough estimate, I have done the calculation but don't have it in front of me).
But a 55% winner (aka me while 2tabling and probably making a few tilt-based plays) will not have such a great chance. The chance for a winning session under those circumstances are closer to around 68% (another estimation). So as you can see, 32% is a likely event.
For more information on winrates affecting variance, check out this thread on the 2+2 HU forums.
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=9878395&an=0&page=1#Post9878395
As a result of this knowledge, I think it is best for my small bankroll that I 1 table for most of this challenge. Technically I make more money per hour 2 tabling, but because it does decrease my winrate, the variance will be a lot crazier. Basically I have concluded that a 20 buyin bankroll is not sufficient for 2tabling, but plenty sufficient for 1tabling.
So I will try 1tabling for a few days and see how it goes. Once I get up to a level I am comfortable grinding, I will likely stay for awhile and let my bankroll grow, which should allow me to 2table again and earn more $$$/hour.
Downswings hurt, but most of the time you learn something, so consider yourself paying for the knowledge and experience.
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BR:$311.08
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3 comments:
this is a really good post
heh - why don't you just increase your required buy-in's per level? ;)
I have been thinking about doing that, but probably not until I hit the midstakes.
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